Hey, I’m Mr. Guo.
If you’re like me — a product person or founder who came up through mobile internet’s golden age — there’s something almost faith-like flowing through your blood: data-driven.
We were obsessed with A/B testing, celebrating 0.2% conversion rate improvements; we treated growth hacker funnel models as gospel, believing every user behavior could be quantified and optimized. ByteDance’s rise elevated this “data faith” to godlike status, making us believe data was the only path to truth.
But in today’s AI era, I want to propose a potentially uncomfortable “counterintuitive” view: Your once-proud “data skills” may not be the key point on the innovation journey. In the future, what determines your value is something older, more “unscientific” — judgment.
The Old Gods Fall: When “Data-Driven” Becomes Innovation’s Shackle
We must admit, the data-driven paradigm was extremely successful in the past. In a mature market with clear rules and paths, it was like a precision radar helping us avoid reefs on established courses and maximize efficiency.
But what AI brings isn’t a new course — it’s an unexplored, chaotic ocean. In this ocean, your previously ultra-detailed navigation chart suddenly becomes useless.
“Many young colleagues joined big companies straight away, always doing AB optimization on mature products… But if you apply this AB experience to 0-1 projects, it might waste your time on wrong or unimportant directions.”
This is “data-driven’s” original sin: It can only help you walk better on a known path, but can’t tell you if the path itself is wrong. A/B testing can help optimize button colors, but can’t tell you whether to create an entirely new interaction paradigm.
When AI creates new possibilities daily, over-obsessing with data traps us in “local optimum.” We exhaustively carve flowers on horse carriages, not seeing the internal combustion engine roaring nearby.
Of course, this doesn’t mean data is completely useless. But data should return to its essence: It should be part of your decision input, not all of it. More important than data itself is your perspective on data. The same data, viewed by different people from different angles, tells completely different stories.
The New Gods Ascend: Why Is “Judgment” King in the AI Era?
If data is “echoes of the past,” then judgment is “whispers of the future.” A front-line practitioner once shared an insight that deeply resonates: “In uncertain, rapidly changing fields, data may not be that important — judgment and conviction matter more.” Why?
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AI created information “abundance,” but also brought cognitive “overload.” Previously, data was scarce; analysis ability was the barrier. Now, AI instantly generates massive reports. What’s scarce isn’t information, but wisdom to make correct choices from infinite options. When 1,000 data reports point in different directions, what do you rely on for decisions? Only judgment.
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Speed of change drastically shortens data’s “shelf life.” In AI, a paradigm might be overturned within months. By the time you collect enough data to “prove” a hypothesis, the market’s “operating system” may have already changed. In such environments, waiting for data becomes luxury or even fatal.
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The future is “evolved,” not “planned.” Great innovations in tech history mostly weren’t perfectly planned. An overly complex plan relying on data validation at each step actually suppresses real innovation. Judgment gives us courage to create environments where “accidents” and “evolution” can happen.
How to Cultivate Your “Judgment”?
First clarify: judgment doesn’t equal blind confidence, but confidence is more valuable than gold. We can liken human thinking to an AI model: your inputs, context length, and knowledge base determine your judgment’s logic and accuracy. Your ability to acquire and understand information more effectively and precisely, and perform necessary quick retrieval when deciding — this determines your ultimate judgment.
Judgment isn’t talent — it’s a deliberately practicable ability. Synthesizing front-line insights, I’ve summarized three cultivation paths:
1. Get in the Arena, Build “First-Hand Experience”
Judgment’s foundation is deep understanding of things’ essence. You need to use, to see, to do. Personally experiencing a complete AI product cycle gives you “feel” far exceeding reading a hundred analysis reports.
2. Escape “Cog” Thinking, Make “Cross-Domain Connections”
Judgment comes from ability to connect knowledge across different domains. You need to think like a CEO: What are the technology principles’ strengths and weaknesses? What are user scenarios’ essential needs? How are business model barriers constructed?
3. Embrace “Loss of Control,” Believe in “Evolution”
Our past engineering training all taught us how to “control.” But AI products’ charm lies precisely in their “loss of control.” Cultivating judgment means learning to design a “stage” rather than “track,” and finding “inevitability” of product evolution in “accidents” users spontaneously create.
You can have a clear goal and direction, but please don’t try to arrange a whole year’s work in minute detail. Things are always dynamically evolving — “plans can’t keep up with changes” is the norm. Continuously fine-tune your direction and methods based on changes. The future is made, not planned. Before spending time on grand narratives N versions out, first solve the smallest business loop problem right in front of you.
Conclusion:
In mobile internet’s calm seas, we were “data analysts” — value lay in reading dashboards.
In the AI era’s surging storms, we must become “navigators.” Dashboard data (the past) is still useful, but it can’t tell you where storms are heading or where new continents lie. At such times, our only dependence is the sea chart etched in our minds (first principles), observation of stars (trend insight), and most importantly — courage and judgment to make course decisions in the fog.
Your “data skills” won’t disappear — they’ll become AI’s standard feature, and with AI’s help, previously heavy data analysis work actually becomes simpler and more accessible. But your irreplaceable value as a human will be your unique judgment — built on deep thinking and first-hand experience.
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